מידע מחירי החלבון בעולם יעלו, כנראה בחורף הקרוב.

[Mike Bikov]

This is from Bruce, VP at Gaspari Nutrition:

"Guys,

I am pretty well plugged into the global commodities market for dietary supplements and sports nutrition. Even folks who might not care too much for me will tell you that I am "juiced in" pretty deep in Asia as well as with the protein vendors in NZ, Australia, etc.

There is a very big whey protein shortage brewing that will probably see the price of most protein supps (especially lower end stuff made from WPC 80 and caseinates) get really pricey in the next couple of months and soar through the winter. I am not sure how this will effect bigger companies that have contracts locked in for MT amounts per month but the smaller (and in many cases, the stupider) companies that spot buy WPC/caseinates are going to be pushed out of business. Ultimately, your choice as a consumer is going to be limited I would imagine unless you're just in it to buy REALLY high end stuff. Anyone who knows anything can tell you the price of WPC 80 and the caseinates went up about 30% since the start of the year. Yesterday I got a notice that for as of June 1st, a protein I buy for Gaspari is going up another 11%.

So what's going on? Two things.

First, the Chinese are buying up a motherload of the lower end whey for their own domestic market to make baby formula and "liquid food supplements" for sick people. With a bigger middle class, Chinese can now afford not to breast feed and they are buying baby formula at a monster rate. Since the melamine "issue" most Chinese who can afford to choose not to buy their own domestic whey - but they are gobbling up a ton of the stuff from India, Australia and New Zealand.

Second, two of the large soda companies (need I mention who?) are rumored to be coming out with their own RTD's that are WPC 37 and 80 based. The rumor is that between the two of them, they cornered much of the spot market buy buying HALF A BILLION KILOGRAMS of whey proteins of all sorts. That is an incomprehensible amount.

So what I have seen in the last few month is a large run on WPC's and caseinates and since the price of these up shifting upwards, I am seeing people who would not normally buy isolates go after them because the price differences between a lower end isolate and a medium concentrate or caseinate is becoming non-existent. And an isolate has a better margin/premium which allows for more profit/ability to discount than a concentrate where the mark up is (and I am not BS'ing you guys here) at best 30%-40% over cost. At some point it will become economically unviable for many smaller companies to put out WPC/caseinate products because they will not be able to make any money at all on it.



The larger protein companies should not be affected for another 6-9 months until their current supply contracts come up for renewal. You pay a little premium to "lock in" a price for 90-180 days and many times it turns out not to be needed this "protein insurance policy."

This time, those of us who were smart enough to play the "options game" with protein will be in good shape - these are the bigger companies. Most smaller companies can't buy 10 MT of protein at a whack (the minimum needed to lock in a contract typically). They are going to get bent over.

In the end, you will still be able to buy whey protein. You might see a huge increase in the price and "discounts end." Or you might see a sudden burst of isolate and hydrolysates on the market and concentrates/caseinates become scarce (with the excuse that companies want to sell a "better protein" which is indeed true - but not the real reason).

My sources tell me that they think the big beverage companies making RTD's are really overestimating the market for products like this (I think they have too) and are going to be stuck with a ton of expensive finished stuff nobody wants because it will be loaded with a ton of carbs to make it taste good for the masses.

Regardless, expect the remainder of 2010 and most of 2011 to be a bad stretch for people looking to purchase finished products that contain whey protein concentrate and caseinates for the most part (there will be exceptions of course - those of us who have contracts are good for at least another 90-180 on price).

Because of this, I am no longer giving out free samples of Intrapro or any other protein based product Gaspari Nutrition makes (Real Mass, Myofusion or Intrapro - I will still give out SizeOn samples because this uses a high end, expensive WPH that is pretty much predigested into di-tri peptides and not affected by the market spike in the price of other proteins).

If it were me and I liked a smaller companies cheap-o protein I would get it now while you can.

Good luck folks,


BK"​

הודעה #2:

A gigantic warning to all concerning whey protein powders
****Remember 2 years ago when I warned you about the oncoming milk shortage and what it would do to whey protein prices? And across the board whey protein prices rose.....

This makes that look like a blip.

I am forewarning everyone. Two major soft drink company's (here I'll make it easy, they begin with C and P to narrow it down, thats all I'll say).....have pretty much shut down the whey protein industry for the rest of 2010. The one company is coming out with a RTD whey product and the other company and their "Alligatorade" drink (think about it) bought a half a billion pounds of whey protein in which they are going to launch their Ready To Drink protein product. Now to do this they bought up all the raw ingredients from all corners or the earth and even existing product out there to tweak into their product. The other company bought a tremendous amount of whey from Asia which in turn is making a huge shortage here in the United States with manufacturers trying to catch up.

This "Alligatorade" drink company acquisition is going to drive whey protein prices skyrocketing northward. The problem is whey is a byproduct of cheese/dairy and the dairies arent going to start manufacturing more cheese to get more byproduct=whey protein (and throw away the cheese).

So and im strongly warning you on this....STRONGLY...trust me that this is going to happen. They bought up a tremendous amount of raw ingredients of whey isolate to mix into their sugar water. 500 million pounds....The other company bought up a tremendous amount of whey protein concentrate.

Whats this mean to you?

We are going to try our best to hold the line but what we are being told is whey protein could very well go to 2 - 3 times the price per pound of what it currently is. And I mean this across the board from every single protein powder company out there.....and in any and every area of whey protein being sold out there.

We probably are in the process of getting rid of the recession whey protein pricing right today due to this but we are going to try to hold out on everything else as long as we can. You will see whey protein powder prices rise and rise and rise for the next month after month after month elsewhere in stores, in retails sites....everywhere.
​

 

[DUBINA]

אז המחירים בישראל יהיו מעל העננים
גם ככה מחירים מופקעים

 

[Mike Bikov]

אומרים שתהיה עליה של כ -30% לפאונד, ושיעשו את העליה הדרגתית כל מספר חודשים.
נראה לי אני קונה 10 דליים לקראת סוף השנה לפני שכל הבלאגן יתחיל
בארץ אני לא אתפלא אם המחירים יגרדו או יגיעו ל 400 ש"ח לדלי.

 

[Avocado]

יכול להיות אולי שזה דווקא יהיה משהו טוב, שחברות ייעברו להשתמש בחלבון יותר איכותי.

ומעניין מה בדיוק קוקהקולה ופפסי ייעשו.

 

[alalalal]

במחיר כזה עדיף לחזור לקנות טונות וגבינות.

 

[PowerLifting]

שכחתי כבר מתי השתמשתי פעם אחרונה באבקת חלבון...
אני עדין לא צריך להכניס 400 גרם חלבון ביום בשביל להתקדם (כמו רובונו)
מספיק גלון חלב (150 גרם)
בשר
ביצים
כל השאר מפחמימ1ת

 

[Machinehead]

משה,

לפי דעתי האמריקאים לא יתנו לזה יד, להבדיל מישראל, שמה החרם הצרכנים יש לו משמעות.
ברגע שיעשו חרם צרכנים על החברות תוספי מזון, לא תהיה להם ברירה אלא להשאיר את המחירים כמו שהם.

אפשר להביא את המקרה של הנפט, אשר נסק ל 140$/חבית, אבל אז הממשלה נלחמה בנושא והמחיר צנח ל 40$ לחבית.

 

[מנחם360]

רק המחיר של החלבון או של תוספי מזון בכללי?

 

[moo]

אומרים שתהיה עליה של כ -30% לפאונד, ושיעשו את העליה הדרגתית כל מספר חודשים.
נראה לי אני קונה 10 דליים לקראת סוף השנה לפני שכל הבלאגן יתחיל
בארץ אני לא אתפלא אם המחירים יגרדו או יגיעו ל 400 ש"ח לדלי.

לפחות נוכל לשתות חלב...

 

[l3ilabong]

לפחות נוכל לשתות חלב...

דבר בשם עצמך:(

אני כעיקרון עדיין לא התחלתי להשתמש בתוספים אבל תיכננתי לקנות קריאטין בקיץ הקרוב,העליה היא ספציפית באבקות החלב או בכלל תוספי המזון?

 

[Mike Bikov]

רק במה שיש מי גבינה

משה,

לפי דעתי האמריקאים לא יתנו לזה יד, להבדיל מישראל, שמה החרם הצרכנים יש לו משמעות.
ברגע שיעשו חרם צרכנים על החברות תוספי מזון, לא תהיה להם ברירה אלא להשאיר את המחירים כמו שהם.

אפשר להביא את המקרה של הנפט, אשר נסק ל 140$/חבית, אבל אז הממשלה נלחמה בנושא והמחיר צנח ל 40$ לחבית.

הקטע עם הנפט קרה כי ארצות ערב התחילו להתלהב ולא כי היה חוסר בעולם כי אין באמת חוסר בנפט בעולם ומי שאומר שכן הוא מבלבל את המוח.
פה יש חוסר מטורף כי חברות הסודה (כנראה קוקה קולה ופפסי) קנו כמויות מטורפות והסינים גילו שיש דבר כזה פורמולה לתינוקות ובגלל האוכלוסיה המטורפת שלהם המלאי פשוט קטן בעולם והם מעלים מחירים רק בשביל דבר אחד, כדי שאנשים יקנו פחות וזו המטרה שלהם, אם יעשו חרם צרכנים יהיה עוד יותר טוב, וסתם ביננו בארה"ב מאמינים שחלבון מעלה אותך 50 ק"ג שריר בשנה ככה שגם אם זה יעלה פי -2 כולם יקנו.
ב GNC המחירים ב 50% יותר מ BB.COM ולא היה פעם אחת שלא נכנסתי לחנות והיו שם לפחות 7-10 אנשים.